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Streaming companies may finally get an edge over traditional TV this year after more than a decade of fighting to capture viewers’ attention — and dollars. That could mean its time for investors to start rethinking how they plan to play the streaming wars long term. A recent forecast from Insider Intelligence suggests that adults in the U.S. will spend more time streaming digital videos on platforms like Netflix and TikTok than traditional television for the first time in history in 2023. According to the findings, linear TV — that is, traditional television with scheduled programming — is expected to account for under half of daily TV viewing this year as digital video viewing jumps to more than 52%. Even despite this potential milestone, a recent jump in streaming stock prices could signal more bullish sentiment toward the sector, especially after last year’s market carnage, which saw giants like Netflix tumble 51%. As of Thursday’s close, Netflix shares were up 9% year to date, while Disney , Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery have gained about 17%, 39% and 66%, respectively. NFLX YTD mountain Netflix shares since the start if 2023 During the pandemic, the streaming industry challenged cable TV as customers cut the cord. Now, competition is ramping up between streaming players. Over the past few years, nearly every major company seeking a stake in the streaming war has rolled out a product. With the initial stage of the fight in the backdrop, media giants are now battling for consumer dollars, while Wall Street — and investor — attention has begun focusing on profitability and metrics like average revenue per user. With cord-cutting set to make big headway this year, here are some of Wall Street’s top streaming picks for investors considering playing the space in the months ahead. Picking through the streaming giants It’s impossible to discuss the streaming industry without mentioning Netflix. The streaming giant known for titles like “Squid Game” and “Stranger Things” made headlines last year when it posted its first subscriber loss in more than a decade. In the months since, the company has implemented a new advertising tier, with plans to crack down on password sharing. In its fourth-quarter earnings release last month, Netflix also posted blowout subscriber numbers , and announced Reed Hastings would give up his CEO role . Despite Netflix’s prowess, Wall Street is mixed on the media giant. Just about 40% of analysts hold a buy rating on the stock and the consensus price target implies just 7% upside from Wednesday’s close. Shares of Netflix struggled Thursday following a report from The Wall Street Journal that the company was cutting prices in over 30 countries. A Netflix spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that it is “updating” some of its country-based price plans. Disney represents another clear-cut behemoth in the space, and boasts one of the higher number of buy ratings on Wall Street. Roughly 74% of analysts say the stock is a buy, with the consensus price target suggesting nearly 24% upside from Wednesday’s close. Shares have already surged 17% this year. DIS YTD mountain Disney shares year to date Like Netflix, Disney has undergone management changes of its own as of late, announcing the abrupt departure of Bob Chapek and return of CEO Bob Iger in November. Earlier this year, activist investor Nelson Peltz staged a proxy fight with the company that he dropped after Disney announced a reorganization of its business and thousands of job cuts. Disney posted a smaller-than-expected subscriber loss within its streaming business in its recent quarter. Smaller streaming players are also making headway despite difficult competition. In a January note to clients, Goldman Sachs’ Brett Feldman named Warner Bros. Discovery a top media pick with one of the most attractive risk-rewards. The company, formed through a merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia last year, is planning to launch a combined HBO Max and Discovery+ streaming service this spring, which Feldman said should offer more insight into its growth potential. A little under half of analysts rate the stock a buy, with the consensus price target implying about 33% upside for shares from Wednesday’s close. The stock’s already surged nearly 66% this year after a roughly 60% tumble in 2022. “While the media company faces all of the same secular and cyclical challenges as its peers, we believe it is best positioned to grow EBITDA, generate improved FCF and drive balance sheet deleveraging as it integrates WarnerMedia and sees synergies ramp,” he said. Bank of America’s Jessica Ehrlich said in a December note to clients that delivering a better content mix and improved user interface could “drive churn down and engagement up.” Under-the-radar advertising beneficiaries Streaming giants may appear best positioned to capitalize on cord-cutting trends, but they aren’t the only potential winners. In a note to clients this week, Needham’s Laura Martin highlighted Magnite as an online ad tech company poised to benefit from connected TV growth. About 82% of analysts say buy shares, poised to rally 11% from Wednesday’s close. “MGNI gets paid based on a percent of total ad spending and experts project rapid US programmatic ad growth over the next 3 years,” she wrote. Martin highlighted how the pandemic transformed consumer viewing and has helped increase Magnite’s total addressable market. The stock is up 7% this year after falling more than 39% in 2022. The Trade Desk is another advertising stock Wall Street is bullish on, with more than 60% of analysts giving a buy rating on the stock. In a September note to clients, Macquarie Research called the company a “key beneficiary” of the next growth phase for connected TV and one of the biggest ad tech winners. TTD YTD mountain Shares since the start of 2023 This year, the stock’s rallied more than 25%. It slumped by 51% in 2022. The consensus price target suggest shares could gain almost 23% from Wednesday’s close. “As buyers drive demand for more ad inventory, private marketplace programmatic demand is rising – this is TTD’s wheelhouse,” wrote analyst Tim Nollen, adding that he expects the company to eventually become a buyer of Netflix ads. “We believe this company was built the right way: strategically aligning itself where the dollars flow on the demand side, via the global media buying agencies,” he said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting
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