Home Prices Fell in October for Fourth Straight Month

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Home prices declined in October from the previous month as higher mortgage interest rates continued to weigh on home-buying demand.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, fell 0.5% in October compared with September, the fourth straight month-over-month decline.

On a year-over-year basis, the index rose 9.2% in October, down from a 10.7% annual rate the prior month.

A surge in mortgage rates this year brought an end to a pandemic-driven housing boom that drove up sales prices and pushed many buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for 10 straight months through November.

Many economists expect prices to continue to slide from their spring peaks, with some calling for year-on-year price declines in 2023. So far this year, prices are down 3% from their June highs, according to the Case-Shiller index. Prices are declining fastest in West Coast markets, such as Phoenix and Las Vegas, where from September to October they fell 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively.

“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices,” said

Craig Lazzara,

managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, prices may well continue to weaken.”

The Case-Shiller index, which measures repeat-sales data, reports on a two-month delay and reflects a three-month moving average. Homes usually go under contract a month or two before they close, so the October data is based on purchase decisions made earlier in the year.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.27% as of Dec. 22, up from 3.05% a year earlier, according to housing-finance agency

Freddie Mac.

The median existing-home price rose 3.5% in November from a year earlier to $370,700, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Case-Shiller 10-city index gained 8% over the year ended in October, compared with a 9.6% increase in September. The 20-city index rose 8.6%, after an annual gain of 10.4% in September. Price growth decelerated in all of the 20 cities.

Miami had the fastest annual home-price growth in the country, at 21%, followed by Tampa, at 20.5%, and Charlotte at 15%. The weakest market was San Francisco, where prices rose 0.6% on an annual basis.

Housing is one of the most weighted categories when tracking inflation, but it’s also one of the most complicated to measure. WSJ’s David Harrison explains how the shelter index is calculated, and why it can muddy the inflation outlook for the Fed. Illustration: Laura Kammermann

Write to Will Parker at will.parker@wsj.com

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