Referenews

The visibility has improved slightly lately since Russia has been publishing select data series for the first time since early in the war. In addition to exports and imports, Russia has resumed publication of data on gold as part of international reserves and some key banking-sector indicators such as profitability, capital position and liquidity.

Before the invasion, Russian data were widely accepted by independent economists. That changed during the war and they are now the subject of debate.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld,

Lester Crown Professor in the Practice of Management at Yale School of Management and founder and chief executive officer of Chief Executive Leadership Institute, says forecasts based on official data are misleading because data provided by the Russian government lack credibility.

With that caveat and the data available, economists’ forecasts vary widely.

JPMorgan has the most positive forecasts for this year: gross domestic product growth of 1%. The company declined to comment.

The International Monetary Fund also has a positive forecast: 0.7%, up from its January forecast of 0.3%.

“They have been able to maintain quite a bit of momentum in their economy by taking very strong fiscal measures,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s research director. The country’s export revenues have also been resilient, he said, as it has found alternative buyers for its energy products following an import ban by Western European countries. 

The OECD has the most negative outlook, though it raised its 2023 outlook for Russia to -2.5% from its figure of -5.6% last fall.

OECD’s explanation: “The impact of the measures taken against Russian energy exports has also been more limited than initially expected, with Russia largely maintaining export levels by expanding sales in other markets, albeit at substantially discounted prices.” 

Petya Koeva Brooks, the IMF’s deputy research director, acknowledges there is indeed less data available than before the war. “We’re using what is available through the official sources, as well as a number of other indicators provided by third parties, including on exports and imports and such where one can look at the numbers in a broader context,” she said.  

The groups have a tighter range of figures for next year.

In the absence of some conventional economic data, economists have been forced to adjust their models for forecasting Russia’s economy, relying on indicators such as oil shipments and prices, trade and federal budget deficit. When looking at these factors, it appears Russia’s economy is unraveling. 

Even as it revised upward its forecast for Russia’s 2023 growth, the IMF expects the war’s impact will shave 7 percentage points from its earlier expectations by 2027. 

“The people of Russia are harmed massively by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The GDP numbers don’t fully disclose that,” World Bank President

David Malpass

said Monday. “It has to do with their life, their living standards and the exit of many young people from Russia.”

Two weeks ago, Wall Street Journal reporter

Evan Gershkovich

—who most recently wrote about the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s economy—was detained by Russian authorities on charges of espionage. The Journal vehemently denies the charge against Mr. Gershkovich and continues to call for his immediate release.

Write to Stephanie Stamm at stephanie.stamm@wsj.com and Yuka Hayashi at Yuka.Hayashi@wsj.com